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 Glimmer of economic confidence, but it could flicker out soon 

Glimmer of economic confidence, but it could flicker out soon

09 Apr, 2009 01:00 AM

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THERE are glimmers of light in the economic outlook - the question is whether to believe them.

As the remaining two of Australia's big four banks announced that they too would pocket more than half of the Reserve Bank's latest interest rate cut, a batch of economic releases suggested tentative signs of recovery.

An index of consumer confidence, compiled by Westpac and the Melbourne Institute, jumped 8 per cent in April, following a reasonably strong result in March.

The Westpac chief economist, Bill Evans, said the Government's tax bonuses - starting this week - had helped stoke confidence.

The sharemarket's mini-recovery had also helped, prompting survey respondents to declare greater confidence in the long-term prospects for the world economy.

Since October, confidence has tumbled across the United States and Europe, but held up in Australia.

But job figures to be released today could dent the optimism if they show a sharp increase in the unemployment rate.

Interest rate cuts, meanwhile, continue to stimulate the housing market. The value of loans extended to home buyers rose 1.3 per cent in February, according to the Bureau of Statistics.

First-home buyers have led the charge, lifting their share of new loans to a record 26.9 per cent.

The rate cuts have also boosted the big banks, which have grabbed a record share of the home-loan market from smaller competitors.

But there are concerns some home buyers could be getting in over their head.

The average loan size for first-home buyers was $264,500 when the first-home owner's grant for existing houses was doubled to $14,000 in October and trebled to $21,000 for newly built properties.

The average loan size has since increased to $280,600, prompting concerns these home buyers will find themselves caught when rates and unemployment start to rise.

"What may be an attractive interest rate today may end up being a significant burden in the not too distant future as interest rates inevitably rise," Scott Manning, a JP Morgan banking analyst, said.

Yesterday the ANZ and Westpac joined the Commonwealth Bank in only passing on to customers 0.10 percentage points of the Reserve's 0.25 point cut in rates. The National Australia Bank did not lower rates at all.

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